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    China’s M&A Market Report 2020
    In 2020, the global M&A market fell as a whole due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and different regions differ greatly in MA& activity. Statistics from Mergermarket, an independent M&A market information provider, show that the popularity of M&A activities worldwide decreased in 2020 to only 17,545 transactions, down 15.5% YoY and the total M&A value was about US$3.16 trillion, down 6.6% YoY. In terms of regions, North America saw the largest drop in M&A value, with only US$1.32 trillion, down 22.6% YoY; Europe had a value of US$0.85 trillion, up 5.6% YoY; M&A transactions in the Asia-Pacific region (excl. Japan) totaled US$0.83 trillion, up 29.8% YoY; Latin America and MEA (Middle East and Africa) contributed US$59.3 billion and US$96.9 billion respectively, down 30.8% and 32.6% respectively.
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    2020中国并购市场全年共发生并购事件1,893起,涉及总金额12,111.77亿元,分别同比上升3.3%、19.6%。尽管2020年是黑天鹅事件频发的一年,但也是中国资本市场改革的关键一年。伴随着上交所科创板注册制常态化运行、深交所创业板试点注册制稳步落地,企业上市的通道逐步放开,通过资本市场实现业务整合升级的能力也逐步增强。全球范围内量化宽松的大环境和国内资本市场的改革带来的上市公司资金充裕小环境互相叠加,为并购市场带来了充足的“干火药”,进而推动了并购市场交易规模的回暖。 并购市场的变化也体现在被并购的热门行业向科创领域的倾斜。以被并购方统计,全年数量前三位的行业分别为机械制造(216起,+36.7%)、IT(182起,+14.5%)以及生物技术/医疗健康(153起,-13.6%)。上述行业与近期多项政策所支持的科技创新领域具有高度重合性,体现出本轮并购热潮在定位上更加偏重于科创相关实体经济领域。 并购市场金额集中于金融、机械制造和能源及矿产三个一级行业。自2018年以来持续开展的金融风险控制与金融供给侧改革推动了相关机构与企业的重组进程,间接推高了2020年金融领域的并购额度。 地理分布方面,2020年并购市场的地域集中特征更为明显。前20位地区的案例数占总并购数量的比例为87.7%,较2019年上升2.3个百分点,前20位总金额占比为90.0%,上升2.6个百分点。 国内外并购市场呈现了冰火两重天的景象。跨国并购的两大分支——外资交易(外买内)和海外交易(内买外)分别受制于美国政府对华投资设限、“长臂管辖”制裁、并购审查趋严等逆全球化贸易政策而开展困难。
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    China’s M&A Market Report Q3’20
    In the third quarter of 2020, after falling into recession during the blockade in the second quarter of this year, the global economy is now gradually recovering from negative growth. China’s economy has recovered faster than expected, while global economy has not yet resumed before the epidemic. There were interest rate cuts and exposure to the US dollar by Federal Reserve have increased the pressure on the US dollar to depreciate; the yen and the euro have appreciated; and the average exchange rate of most emerging economies’ currencies has also appreciated. The Federal Reserve issued a stable monetary easing signal and the TED spread remained low, however, US stocks fell sharply in early September, and the VIX index rebounded to more than 30% and it was hard to witness downward trend. In the latest World Economic Outlook Report released by the International Monetary Fund, the global economy has been improved faster by global blockade measures, and its recovery in the third quarter was beyond expectation: The global growth in 2020 is expected to be -4.4%, less than that of -4.9% in June 2020. The IMF predicts that huge negative output gaps and high unemployment will occur in all nations and regions (including developed economies, emerging markets, and developing economies) in 2021. The global economy will grow by 5.2% in 2021, consumption will gradually increase, and corporate investment is expected to pick up but will remain weak.
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    China’s M&A Market Report Q2’20
    In the second quarter of 2020, due to the liquidity support of central banks and the effective control of the COVID-19 epidemic in some regions, the financial market gradually recovered from the negative impact of the epidemic. The global stock market staged a recovery overall, but still away from the level before the epidemic spread in February 2020. The average of the US dollar index has rebounded from the first quarter, the yen and the euro have been stable, and most emerging economies have suffered from a significant currency devaluation. As the Federal Reserve launched open QE and injected liquidity into the market through large-scale repurchase and other tools, the price movement of various assets has returned to normal. On June 30, the VIX index was 30.43%, a significant decline from March. In the latest World Economic Outlook Report released by the International Monetary Fund, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on economy is more serious than expected, and the recovery is expected to be slower than before: the global GDP growth rate in 2020 is expected to be –4.9%, 1.9% lower than the forecast in April. The IMF predicts that all regions (developed economies, emerging markets, and developing economies) will suffer negative growth in 2020, and the forecasts of consumption growth in most economies have been reduced. The global growth in 2021 is expected to be 5.4%, which is 0.4% lower than the forecast in April. Consumption will gradually increase next year, and investment will stabilize and pick up, but it will remain weak.
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    China’s M&A Market Report Q1’20
    In the first quarter of 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the financial market became turbulent, and the global economic prosperity declined significantly after March. The global stock market is in great turmoil, the liquidity crisis of the US dollar broke out, assets were sold off, and the prices of risky assets and safe-haven assets plunged one after another. The VIX index rose more than the financial crisis in 2008. In the latest World Economic Outlook Report released by the International Monetary Fund, the world economic growth is facing the most serious blow since the Great Depression in the 1930s: for the first time, the world is facing the simultaneous recession of both developed and emerging economies. The IMF predicts that the global GDP growth will shrink by 3% in 2020, and the global economy will recover to the 5.8% YoY growth level in 2021. The COVID-19 epidemic will cause losses of about US$9 trillion worldwide in the next two years, exceeding the total GDP of Japan and Germany. If the epidemic continues until 2021, global GDP may shrink by 2.2% next year.