China Private Equity Market Report Q3’20
China Private Equity Market Report Q3’20
报告标签: PE
报告价格: 1500.00
出版时间: 2021-03-15 页数:102 咨询电话: 400-600-9460 目录下载
出版时间: 2021-03-15 页数:102 咨询电话: 400-600-9460

Inthe third quarter of 2020, after falling into recession during the blockade inthe second quarter of this year, the global economy is now gradually recoveringfrom negative growth. China’s economy has recovered faster than expected, whileglobal economy has not yet resumed before the epidemic. There were interestrate cuts and exposure to the US dollar by Federal Reserve have increased thepressure on the US dollar to depreciate; the yen and the euro have appreciated;and the average exchange rate of most emerging economies’ currencies has alsoappreciated. The Federal Reserve issued a stable monetary easing signal and theTED spread remained low, however, US stocks fell sharply in early September,and the VIX index rebounded to more than 30% and it was hard to witnessdownward trend. Inthe latest World Economic Outlook Report released by the International MonetaryFund, the globaleconomy has been improved faster by global blockade measures, and its recoveryin the third quarter was beyond expectation: The global growth in 2020 isexpected to be -4.4%, less than that of -4.9% in June 2020. The IMF predictsthat huge negative output gaps and high unemployment will occur in all nationsand regions (including developed economies, emerging markets, and developingeconomies) in 2021. The global economy will grow by 5.2% in 2021, consumptionwill gradually increase, and corporate investment is expected to pick up butwill remain weak.

UnitedStates: Economic growth have strong rebounds, while resistance appears due tolack of relief policies in the future

Aftersuffering a vertiginous drop caused by economic stagnation in the secondquarter, the economic growth had strong rebounds in this quarter: According tothe data of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce,in Q3’20, the initial value of real GDP was 33.1% (-2.9% YoY), slightly betterthan market expectations (32%). PMI data shows that the U.S. economy was stillin recovery trend, but that of service industry has declined slightly from theprevious period, and the service industry is likely to be dragged to recoveryby the repeated and long-lasting epidemic. The manufacturing PMI from July toSeptember was 61.5%, 67.6%, and 60.2%, respectively. The index of output andnew order has risen sharply, becoming the core driving force for manufacturingPMI data which performed beyond expectations. In addition, non-manufacturingPMI also has increased for three consecutive months, but its growth rate hasslowed down. Among them, the new orders index dropped significantly, and thatof non-manufacturing in August dropped to 56.8%, down by 10.9% QoQ. In terms ofsub-items, since the new round of relief policies have not yet been introduced,consumption recovery has slowed down, and the CCI was still low. On July 31,the unemployment subsidy expired, the growth rate of real personal consumptionexpenditure in August fell to 0.67% QoQ, which has dropped for four consecutivemonths. After falling off a cliff in Q2’20, foreign trade began to rebound andnarrowed the decline this quarter. The trade deficit further widened to US$63.5billion as exports fell sharply in comparison with imports. In addition, thelabor market continued to recover, the unemployment continued to decline, andhigh-frequency indicators such as new non-farm payrolls in August maintainedpositive growth. There was a slight decline from the previous value, butremained recovery trend. In response to the risk of financial market turmoiland economic recession, the Fed maintained its loose monetary policy and saidthat it would maintain the current interest rate level of 0% to 0.25% until theend of 2023. The U.S. Federal Reserve provided all-round liquidity to themarket and has substantially increased the supply of U.S. dollars. Liquidityindicators such as U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates and TED spreads show thatthe liquidity of the dollar has been greatly eased. In the new round of bailoutpolicies, the two parties have not yet reached an agreement. Therefore, it willwitness a decline in consumption and obstacle of the economic recovery causedby the temporary absence of the policy.

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