In the third quarter of 2020, after falling intorecession during the blockade in the second quarter of this year, the globaleconomy is now gradually recovering from negative growth. China’s economy hasrecovered faster than expected, while global economy has not yet resumed beforethe epidemic. There were interest rate cuts and exposure to the US dollar byFederal Reserve have increased the pressure on the US dollar to depreciate; theyen and the euro have appreciated; and the average exchange rate of mostemerging economies’ currencies has also appreciated. The Federal Reserve issueda stable monetary easing signal and the TED spread remained low, however, USstocks fell sharply in early September, and the VIX index rebounded to morethan 30% and it was hard to witness downward trend. In the latest World Economic Outlook Report released by the InternationalMonetary Fund, the global economy has been improved faster byglobal blockade measures, and its recovery in the third quarter was beyondexpectation: The global growth in 2020 is expected to be -4.4%, less than thatof -4.9% in June 2020. The IMF predicts that huge negative output gaps and highunemployment will occur in all nations and regions (including developedeconomies, emerging markets, and developing economies) in 2021. The globaleconomy will grow by 5.2% in 2021, consumption will gradually increase, andcorporate investment is expected to pick up but will remain weak.

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